Denise Rene Belford, age 11, of Newport News, Virginia, for her question:
Why were ancient weather signs so popular?
Some old timers trusted the woolly bear caterpillar to predict a severe winter. Others relied on the groundhog to forecast the spring rains. Many insisted that a rosy red dawn was a sure sign of rain. Various weather predictions and proverbs have been popular for ages, no doubt for two main reasons. For one thing, many are based on sound observations and often come true. Two, let's face it; these old guessing games are a lot of fun.
People have been trying to outguess the weather for thousands of years. The science of meteorology has been on the ,job for less than a century. This leaves a vast span of time during which generations of weather worriers had to find right or wrong answers for themselves. Human nature being what it is, when a reliable answer was not available, people made one up. Weather forecasting became a sort of game. In ancient Rome, weather prediction became a sacred pastime performed by the priests. And some of the rituals were downright ridi¬culous. For example, they insisted that the insides of a sacrificed chicken could predict the weather plus other coming events. Many of our weather signs also depend on the animal world and some experts suspect that this idea dates back to ancient Rome.
However, the Romans did not establish Groundhog Day, because this chubby animal is a native American. Our groundhog weather rumor was started by the Pilgrims. The hibernating ground hog is supposed to peep outdoors on February 2. If the sun shines and he sees his shadow, he expects a long rainy spell and goes back to sleep for six more weeks.
It so happens that weather records through the years show that a very early warm spell often is followed by a long wet spring at least in New England. But animal experts insist that the groundhog knows nothing about this. The fat sleepyhead refuses to poke his nose out¬doors before March. In any case, this is a good example of why certain
old weather signs were and are so popular. They are merry guessing games that may or may not come true and everybody enjoys the yearly jokes.
Other ancient weather signs are more serious and usually more reliable. Before the age of weather science, people depended on them. As a rule, they were based on patient observations over long periods of time. For example, red clouds at dawn were said to warn the shepherd of a rainy day. This could come true if they were heavy clouds approach¬ing with the wind. However, as a rule, these old signs were based on local conditions, which tend to vary from place to place.
Modern weather forecasting depends on countless reports from high and low, far and wide. It is based on known facts about prevailing winds and how certain air masses are likely to behave. True, it is not 100 per cent correct, though it gives a more accurate picture of local events. This is fine and sensible. But some of those weather signs are a lot more fun than the reports of serious minded weathermen.